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Improving the G20 process

Post, October 24, 2016
By Christophe Destais

The recent G20 Hangzhou Summit is yet another example of the difficulties the G20 has to move ahead at cruising speed. Changes in the G20 process might help to increase its impact.

Comments on IMF’s “Global Trade: What’s behind the Slowdown?” – or why there is more to trade slowdown than weak demand

Post, October 18, 2016
By Sébastien Jean

The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook points to weak demand and investment as the main factor behind the world trade slowdown. I argue that this conclusion is overblown and that the high-quality underlying work falls well short of explaining the slow trade puzzle.

Brazil: restoring fiscal austerity while preserving public services

Post, September 7, 2016
By Cristina Terra

Restoring fiscal austerity in Brazil is not an easy task since the government faces both exerts from privileged groups and constraints establishing minimum public expenditures on some bills. It could however be done without penalizing public services if their efficiency is improved.

Should we fear the Brexit uncertainty?
IMF versus Krugman

Post, August 19, 2016
By Stéphane Lhuissier, Fabien Tripier

IMF cuts global growth forecasts following Brexit vote. Paul Krugman has taken a different point of view by arguing there is no reason to worry in the immediate future. This opposition reflects clearly two different opinions on the short-term consequences of uncertainty.

In search of a liquid asset for European financial markets

Post, July 15, 2016
By Francesco Molteni

European financial markets face a shortage of liquid assets. New regulations increase banks’ demand for liquid securities, mainly sovereign bonds, but the European fiscal rules constrain the supply of public debt. Further, the QE is draining bonds from the market. Some proposed forms of “Eurobonds” or new debt securities issued by European supranational organizations could solve this problem.

How Multi-Destination Firms Shape the Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Trade

Post, June 14, 2016
By Jérôme Héricourt, Clément Nedoncelle

The idea that exchange rate volatility could be detrimental to international trade is widely accepted. Surprisingly, macroeconomic evidence on its impact on trade yields either small or insignificant effect on aggregate outcomes. This column suggests that the behavior of big, multi-destination firms help explain this puzzle.

Through the lenses of the natural rate of interest, European monetary policy appears to be too loose since 2015

Post, May 27, 2016
By Stéphane Lhuissier

This column evaluates the ECB’s monetary policy stance based on the concept of the “natural rate of interest”. Our estimation results reveal that the ECB’s asset purchase programme seems to be too accommodating since 2015.

Towards an international financial public order

Post, February 9, 2016
By Christophe Destais

The shift from the concept of an “international monetary system” to that of “global financial safety nets” is positive but, still, limited mostly to emergency liquidity assistance. The broader notion of an “international financial public order” including crisis prevention would be more suitable.

Falling oil price and appreciating dollar: is it normal?

Post, January 27, 2016
By Virginie Coudert, Valérie Mignon

Dollar changes impact negatively oil prices most of the times, except when the dollar reaches particularly high levels. During these episodes of high dollar values, the relation between both variables turns positive.

Best wishes for 2016!

Post, January 1, 2016
By Sébastien Jean

After an eventful year, many questions are raised about trends in the world economy, on which CEPII will aim at shedding light in the coming year.

Enforcement of FTAs: lessons for TPP and new trade agreements

Post, December 15, 2015
By Sébastien Jean, Kevin Lefebvre

The U.S. administration insists on the fact that the TPP is ‘enforceable’. If experience of previous US trade agreements is to offer any guidance, this enforceability cannot be taken for granted. Yet the stakes are high for both regional trade rules’ credibility, and for multilateralism’s future.

Georges Sokoloff

Post, December 12, 2015
By Michel Fouquin, Sébastien Jean, Jean-Pierre Saltiel

Georges Sokoloff nous a quittés ce lundi 7 décembre. Avec ce contributeur de toujours aux travaux du CEPII disparaît l’un des meilleurs experts du monde russe et soviétique.

Européennes

Business Cycles in Europe since 1970

Post, December 10, 2015
By Stéphane Lhuissier

This column reports the nature and the amplitude of economic cycles in the Euro area since 1970, with a focus on the role of financial factors in generating these cycles.

COP21

Trillions in Transition: Growing our Way out of Climate Change?

Post, December 7, 2015
By D.A. Loorbach, R. Lijnis Huffenreuter

Paris 2015 marks the start of a climate change investment boom worth trillions of dollars. This upcoming hype begs the question: can we grow our way out of climate change?

COP21

To Recognize the Social Value of Mitigation Actions in a Climate Agreement

Post, December 7, 2015
By Dominique Finon

In theory, uncertainties about the costs of the low carbon policies implemented by each country to meet the emissions quota imposed by the agreement make it unlikely that any credible agreement could be reached or respected, either because countries would be reluctant to commit, or due to opportunistic cheating.

COP21

Thinking ‘Eco-Systemically’ to Shift the Trillions

Post, December 7, 2015
By Romain Morel, Ian Cochran

A factor that clearly differentiates COP21 and COP15 in Copenhagen is the increasing mobilization of the financial sector. In the past months, financial actors have taken commitments and spoken out on climate-related topics.

COP21

The price of carbon: ways forward after COP-21

Post, November 26, 2015
By Christian de Perthuis, Pierre-André Jouvet, Raphaël Trotignon

Because the climate is a common good, economists generally advocate the use of an international carbon price to internalize climate risk, to incorporate as many countries as possible into an agreement and to thwart “free-rider” strategies.

COP21

Towards a Sustainable Financial System

Post, November 26, 2015
By Armin Haas

It will be key for the global sustainability transition that the measures taken in the respective sustainability dimensions, i.e. the economic, the ecological, and the social dimension, complement and reinforce each other.

COP21

Environmental policy performance bonds

Post, November 12, 2015
By Abdeldjellil Bouzidi, Michael Mainelli

Linking public debt to CO2 emissions could give governments a strong incentive to deliver on climate change action.

Is the exchange rate – oil price nexus stable over time?

Post, October 26, 2015
By Valérie Mignon, Jean-Pierre Allegret, Cécile Couharde, Tovonony Razafindrabe

It is a widely accepted view that many commodity-exporting countries have commodity currencies, in that movements in real commodity prices can explain fluctuations in their real exchange rates.

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Improving the G20 process

Comments on IMF’s “Global Trade: What’s behind the Slowdown?” – or why there is more to trade slowdown than weak demand

Brazil: restoring fiscal austerity while preserving public services

Should we fear the Brexit uncertainty? IMF versus Krugman

In search of a liquid asset for European financial markets

How Multi-Destination Firms Shape the Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Trade

Through the lenses of the natural rate of interest, European monetary policy appears to be too loose since 2015

Towards an international financial public order

Falling oil price and appreciating dollar: is it normal?

Best wishes for 2016!

Enforcement of FTAs: lessons for TPP and new trade agreements

Georges Sokoloff

Business Cycles in Europe since 1970

Trillions in Transition: Growing our Way out of Climate Change?

To Recognize the Social Value of Mitigation Actions in a Climate Agreement

Thinking ‘Eco-Systemically’ to Shift the Trillions

The price of carbon: ways forward after COP-21

Towards a Sustainable Financial System

Environmental policy performance bonds

Is the exchange rate – oil price nexus stable over time?

Should we fear the Brexit uncertainty?
IMF versus Krugman