CEPII, Recherche et Expertise sur l'economie mondiale
EQCHANGE Annual Assessment 2022


Carl Grekou

 Highlights :
  • One year after the major shock that represented the Covid-19 pandemic, the global configuration of currency misalignments between 2020 and 2021 has shown a relative stability.
  • The US dollar registered a moderate decrease of its overvaluation; the Chinese renminbi has experienced an upward movement that slightly eroded its undervaluation and aligned it with its fundamental value; the Japanese yen underwent the opposite direction and moved from a slight to considerable undervaluation.
  • The euro area is featured with various situations: Germany, Ireland and the Netherlands displayed undervaluations; Belgium, Finland, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Portugal and Spain were rather close to their equilibrium; Austria and Greece displayed overvaluations.
  • Europe is also characterized by a considerable heterogeneity with undervaluations prevailing in Northern countries (Norway, Sweden), overvaluations in Eastern and South Eastern countries and scattered cases of currencies in line (e.g., Poland, the United Kingdom).
  • Movements in EMEs were very heterogenous; the Turkish lira continued to fall hence increasing its undervaluation; the Brazilian real continued to depreciate and slightly increased its undervaluation; the Korean won and the Indian rupee remained stable and maintained their undervaluations; most emerging economies and particularly in South-East Asia experienced downward movements (reduction in overvaluations/ increase of undervaluations).

 Abstract :
This publication, accompanying the 2022’s update of EQCHANGE, aims at providing an overview of exchange rate misalignments for 2021. Overall, one year after the major shock that represented the Covid-19 pandemic, the global configuration of currency misalignments between 2020 and 2021 has shown a relative stability. Among advanced economies, the picture was broadly unchanged. The US dollar registered a moderate decrease of its overvaluation; the British pound and the Canadian dollar have not shown any significant movements; the Japanese yen plunged and increased its undervaluation. The euro area is again featured with various situations with undervaluations prevailing in Germany, Ireland and the Netherlands while Belgium, France, Italy, Portugal and Spain were close to their equilibrium. In emerging economies, the Turkish lira registered the largest swings against the US dollar and have consequently increased of its undervaluation. The Chinese renminbi has experienced an upward movement that slightly eroded its undervaluation and aligned it with its fundamental value.


 Keywords : EQCHANGE | Exchange Rates | Currency Misalignments | Global Imbalances

 JEL : E3, E4, E5, E6, F3
CEPII Working Paper
N°2022-13, December 2022

Full text

Reference
BibTeX (with abstract),
plain text (with abstract),
RIS (with abstract)

Contact: 
Back