The tariff increases announced by Donald Trump before his election would have a serious impact on global trade flows. Raising tariffs by 60% on China and 10% on all other partners except Canada and Mexico, combined with retaliatory measures, would mean a collapse of 80.5% in US purchases and 58% in sales with China by 2030, a significant withdrawal from the European Union and a refocusing on North America. As China redirects its overcapacity to other strategic markets while reducing its imports across the board, its trade surplus with the European Union would rise from $14.1 billion to $75.4 billion and its surplus with Mexico from $37.1 billion to $65.2 billion.
 

To find out more, read Trump 2.0 Tariffs: What Cost for the World Economy?
 

Impact of the trade war on strategic trade flows in 2030
Percentage change as compared to the CEPII MIRAGE-Power model baseline