This year, the major topics of the CEPII's work programme emerge from the current gloomy context: the energy transition, the resilience of value chains, impacts of geopolitical tensions, the macroeconomic situation marked by new budgetary priorities and the tightening of monetary policies.

The recent G20 Hangzhou Summit is yet another example of the difficulties the G20 has to move ahead at cruising speed. Changes in the G20 process might help to increase its impact.

The shift from the concept of an “international monetary system” to that of “global financial safety nets” is positive but, still, limited mostly to emergency liquidity assistance. The broader notion of an “international financial public order” including crisis prevention would be more suitable.

The implementation of a multilateral mechanism for sovereign debt restructuring that the UN is calling for, is illusory. However, progress could be achieved in different ways: improving the contractual terms, introducing new clauses on automatic debt reprofiling and using the leverage of international funding.

The decision to change the exchange rate regime of the renminbi taken by the Chinese authorities at the beginning of August might be less a response to the economic downturn than a further step, against all odds, in a bold but risky financial liberalization agenda.

Back in 2010, the Eurozone countries insisted a lot that the IMF provides exceptional financing to Greece. They will be duly reminded when the reckoning moment has come.

The rallying of major Western countries to the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank provides yet another illustration of the relevance of the analogy between China's diplomacy and the game of Go aimed at placing pawns patiently to stifle one’s opponents and conquer territories.

The recycling of current account and/or financial account surpluses through the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves by emerging countries after the 1999-2001 crisis, particularly by China, has been described as “smoking but not inhaling in international financial markets”.

Currency swaps between central banks are quickly emerging as a key feature of the international monetary system.

The current turmoil in emerging capital markets is the result of a classical reversal of market sentiment after an excess of optimism. There are good reasons for being cautiously optimistic but uncertainties remain.