Better Two Eyes than One: A Synthesis Classification of Exchange Rate Regimes
Cécile Couharde
Carl Grekou
Points clés :
Cécile Couharde
Carl Grekou
- We propose a new de facto classification of exchange rate regimes, the synthesis classification, drawing on a unified framework between the RR and LYS classifications.
- The classification provides not only a broader coverage but also encompasses a broad spectrum of exchange systems, and appears to fit better with the known history of exchange rate regimes developments in the post-Bretton Woods era.
- The classification brings an interesting nuance to the so-called hollowing-out hypothesis: movements –especially in EMEs since the late 1990s– were essentially toward more tightly “managed” intermediate regimes.
- Revisiting the nexus between currency crises and exchange rate regimes, we show that flexibility is associated with a higher probability of currency crisis.
Résumé :
This paper proposes a new de facto classification of exchange rate regimes, the synthesis classification. The proposed framework has several advantages over existing de facto classifications. First, it offers a unified framework based on the most divergent classifications, the RR and LYS classifications, leading not only to a broader coverage but also to encompass a broad spectrum of exchange systems. Second, it fits better with the known history of exchange rate regimes developments in the post-Bretton Woods era. Among others, it brings an interesting nuance to the so-called hollowing-out hypothesis by showing that the evolution of de facto regimes —especially in emerging economies since the late 1990s— has essentially involved movement toward more tightly “managed” intermediate regimes and not a shift away from such regimes. As an illustration of the insightfulness of our classification, we empirically revisit the nexus between currency crises and exchange rate regimes. In addition to associate a higher probability of currency crisis to both intermediate and floating regimes, our classification, also displays better statistical performances than other classifications in predicting currency crises.
Mots-clés : Currency crisis | De facto classifications | Exchange rate regimes | Probit model | ROC analysis
JEL : E52, F33, F4, O24
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