CEPII, Recherche et Expertise sur l'economie mondiale
How Macroeconomic Imbalances Interact? Evidence from a Panel VAR Analysis


Blaise Gnimassoun
Valérie Mignon

 Highlights :
  • We investigate the interactions between three key macroeconomic imbalances.
  • We estimate a panel VAR model for a sample of 22 industrialized countries over the 1980-2011 period.
  • We evidence that output-gap shocks and currency overvaluation deepen current-account deficits.

 Résumé :
This paper aims at investigating the interactions between three key macroeconomic imbalances, namely Global imbalances,current-account discrepancies (external imbalances), output gaps (internal imbalances), and exchange-rate misalignments. To this end, we rely on the estimation of a panel VAR model for a sample of 22 industrialized countries over the 1980-2011 period. Our findings show that macroeconomic imbalances strongly interact through a causal relationship. We evidence that if current-account disequilibria threaten the stability of the global economy, their origin can be found in internal imbalances and exchange-rate misalignments: positive output-gap shocks as well as currency overvaluation deepen current-account deficits. In addition, while variations in external imbalances mainly result from exchange-rate misalignments in the euro area, they are mostly explained by output gaps for non-eurozone members.

 Mots-clés : Global imbalances | current account | output gap | exchange-rate misalignments | panel VAR

 JEL : F32, F31, C33
CEPII Working Paper
N°2013-42, December 2013

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 Domaines d'expertise

Monnaie & Finance
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