CEPII, Recherche et Expertise sur l'economie mondiale
What Did Happen in the DDA? Quantifying the Role of Negotiation Modalities


Yvan Decreux
Lionel Fontagné

 Highlights :
  • We propose a quantitative assessment of the economic impact of the DDA, using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the world economy.
  • We take into account the reduction in domestic support, the phasing out of export subsidies in agriculture, trade facilitation and the Spring 2011 sectoral initiatives.
  • We show that the design of the negotiation led the DDA to a dead end.

 Résumé :
Negotiators may reach a trade deal on a limited series of issues WTO Ministerial Conference in Bali (3–6 December 2013), one of these being trade facilitation. Based on a quantitative assessment taking into account the detail of the last proposals circulated, we argue however that the design of the negotiation led the DDA to a dead end. This quantification is performed with a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the world economy, while liberalisation of tariffs is taken into account at the product level in order to address exceptions, flexibilities as well as the non-linear design of the formulas. A reduction in domestic support and the phasing out of export subsidies in agriculture are taken into account, as well as trade facilitation. Importantly, we evaluate the impact of the Spring 2011 sectoral initiatives.

 Mots-clés : Doha | Computable General Equilibrium Model | Trade facilitation

 JEL : F13, F17
CEPII Working Paper
N°2013-38, November 2013

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 Domaines d'expertise

Commerce & Mondialisation
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