CEPII, Recherche et Expertise sur l'economie mondiale
Trade and Infrastructure Integration in Africa


Lionel Fontagné
Mathilde Lebrand
Siobhan Murray
Michele Ruta
Gianluca Santoni

 Points clés :
  • The economic integration of the African continent rests on two pillars: the ratification of an ambitious trade agreement and massive investments in transport infrastructure.
  • We use a new city-level database on transport times of African exporters and a general equilibrium model of international trade to assess the impact of greater trade and transport integration in Africa.
  • A pan-African agreement such as the Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) could lead to an increase of 3.4 per cent in the exports of African countries and an increase in GDP of 0.6 per cent.
  • Additional investment in transport infrastructure (roads, ports, and land borders), as proposed in the Program for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA), could add another 11.5% to exports and 2.0% to GDP.
  • Our results highlight the importance of investing in transport to maximize the benefits of the AfCFTA.

 Résumé :
Economic integration of the African continent rests on two pillars: the ratification of an ambitious trade agreement and massive investment in transportation infrastructure. Leveraging a newly created city-level database on African exporters' transport times, transport route optimization and general equilibrium modelling of international trade, the paper quantifies the impact of greater trade and transport integration for Africa. A pan-African agreement, such as the Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), would increase African countries' exports by an average of 3.4 percent and GDP by 0.6 percent. Complementing trade integration by reducing transportation time on roads, ports and border posts would increase exports by 11.5 percent and GDP by 2 percent. Major transport investments are necessary to fully reap the benefits of the AfCFTA.

Updated on November 15th 2023

 Mots-clés : Infrastructure | Preferential Trade Agreements | Structural Gravity | General Equilibrium

 JEL : F14, F15
CEPII Working Paper
N°2023-14, June 2023

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 Domaines d'expertise

Commerce & Mondialisation
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