CEPII, Recherche et Expertise sur l'economie mondiale
Immigration and Electoral Support for the Far Left and the Far Right


Anthony Edo
Yvonne Giesing
Jonathan Öztunc
Panu Poutvaara

 Highlights :
  • We estimate the impact of immigration on voting for far-left and far-right parties in France.
  • To derive causal estimates, we instrument more recent immigration flows by past settlement patterns in 1968.
  • We find that immigration increases support for far-right candidates and has no robust effect on far-left voting.
  • The increased support for far-right candidates is driven by low educated immigrants from non-Western countries.

 Résumé :
Immigration has become one of the most divisive political issues in the United States, the United Kingdom, France and several other Western countries. We estimate the impact of immigration on voting for far-left and far-right parties in France, using panel data on presidential elections from 1988 to 2017. To derive causal estimates, we instrument more recent immigration flows by past settlement patterns in 1968. We find that immigration increases support for far-right candidates and has no robust effect on far-left voting. The increased support for far-right candidates is driven by low educated immigrants from non-Western countries.

 Mots-clés : Voting | Immigration

 JEL : d72, f22, j15, p16
CEPII Working Paper
N°2017-20, December 2017

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