International Economics

<< N°169

  N°169  
Issue Q2 2022  
Mexico needs a fiscal twist: Response to Covid-19 and beyond  
Swarnali Ahmed Hannan
Keiko Honjo
Mehdi Raiss
 
Mexico's fiscal response to the pandemic has been modest compared to its peers, reflecting the authorities' desire to not issue new debt for spending. This approach, however, resulted in a more severe recession in 2020 and a weaker economic recovery, notwithstanding spillovers from the United States. Balancing the need for stronger near-term fiscal support for the people and the recovery against medium-term discipline, this paper lays out an alternative strategy. We show that credibly announcing a pro-growth and inclusive medium-term fiscal reform upfront—including increased tax capacity, higher public investment and strengthened social safety nets—would open space for larger short-term support and close medium-term fiscal gaps. Model simulations suggest that this package would boost output, limit lasting economic damage from the pandemic, and put debt trajectory on a declining path in the medium term as tax reforms pay off and risk premia decline. O54
Abstract

   
Covid-19 ; Fiscal response ; Tax ; Social safety nets ; General equilibrium model ; Keywords
H2 ; H5 ; H6 ; E2 ; E6 ; JEL classification
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