Houssein Guimbard & Maƫlan Le Goff , 2014.
"Mega-deals: What Consequences for sub-Saharan Africa?,"
CEPII Working Paper 2014- 28 , décembre 2014 , CEPII.
The sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries are excluded from the mega-deals (EU-USA, EU-Japan, China-Japan-Korea…) under negotiations: they might however undergo important economic impacts, as their exports remain dependant from those large markets. Using a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGEM), this paper find that mega-deals would have a negative impact on the welfare of SSA countries. Regional integration (the “Tripartite” FTA, a potential trade agreement gathering 26 African countries) in Africa might limit these losses but cannot overcome them. A continental RTA involving all SSA countries would slightly counterbalance the negative impact of the Mega deals. We also show that openness of African countries towards Asia could be a potential solution to avoid trade diversion.
International Trade ; Mega Deals ; Africa