Anne Célia Disdier, Charlotte Emlinger & Jean Fouré , 2015.
"Atlantic versus Pacific Agreement in Agri-food Sectors: Does the Winner Take it All?,"
CEPII Working Paper 2015- 10 , July 2015 , CEPII.
Trade liberalization of the agri-food sector is a sensitive topic in both TTIP (Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership) and TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) discussions. This paper first provides an overview of the current flows and trade barriers. Using a general equilibrium model of international trade (the MIRAGE model), it then assesses the potential impact of these two agreements on agri-food trade and value added. Results suggest that the US would gain from both agreements for their agri-food sectors, while almost all their partners and third countries would benefit less and even register losses in some sectors. The two agreements however do not compete much one with the other, since all defensive and offensive interests of contracting parties are complementary. Finally, the Atlantic trade may be impacted by the inclusion of standards harmonization within the Pacific Agreement but not by its extension to additional members (e.g. China or India).
Mega-trade deals ; Agri-food ; CGE model ; Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership ; Trans-Pacific Partnership