The CEPII is looking forward to the new year and the developments it will bring that we hope to be positive. The Government, under whose auspices the CEPII has been operating since 1978, has initiated a thorough review of how to enhance the performance and coordination of the French organisations that conduct economic analysis and policy evaluation.

This year, the major topics of the CEPII's work programme emerge from the current gloomy context: the energy transition, the resilience of value chains, impacts of geopolitical tensions, the macroeconomic situation marked by new budgetary priorities and the tightening of monetary policies.

On 23rd February - the eve of the Russian invasion of Ukraine - the Council of the European Union (EU) adopted the first package of sanctions in response to Moscow's recognition of the self-proclaimed autonomous republics of Donetsk and Lugansk. Since then, five further packages have followed, the last of which was adopted on 3rd June. From the second package onwards, sanctions affected trade in goods.

The Ukrainian conflict has brought to the forefront the issue of Europe's dependence on hydrocarbon imports. Trade data are the usual source to construct a measure of interdependence between states. In the case of natural gas, however, they do not provide a reliable picture of actual flows.

French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel might well hold the future of Europe in their hands. Or maybe more accurately in their cheque books. Round table with Anne-Laure Delatte, Lorenzo Marsili, Daniel Stelter, and Olaf Wientzek, on France 24 on 30 june 2020.

The Covid-19 pandemic has revealed the vulnerability of the Old continent to drug-supply disruption. Europe nevertheless remains, by far, the leader in the global trade of pharmaceutical products. Article published in The Conversation on May 31, 2020

The economic costs of the Covid-19 crisis will crucially depend on the evolution of financial and economic uncertainty. This blog presents a dashboard to track uncertainty in the US economy and compare the ongoing crisis to the 1987 and 2008 financial crises.
Updated from March 26 post.

Vietnam opening up and development are closely linked to the strategies of multinational companies at the heart of the transformation of economic structures. In spite of international trade tensions, Vietnam seems to be taking advantage of this by acting as a conduit for Japanese, Korean and Chinese companies to export to the United States.

Vietnam has opted for international openness since 1986 to create a “socialist market economy”, which has allowed it to experience vigorous economic expansion. Its integration into the world economy has made it an important link in international value chains, massively importing components from China and Asia in general, and exporting, as massively, finished products to the United States and Europe.

More than three years after the Brexit referendum, Brexit is still not settled, but the uncertainty remains. This long period of uncertainty has cost around half a point of economic growth per year since 2016 for the UK’s economy, which is equivalent to an annual loss of £16 billion.